Because deep thinking is good for the mind!

[kaaatie]

I have a hypothetical question related to a conversation that I've been having...

Let's presume that there's a group of prisoners (let's say 10 of them). An executioner puts them all in a position where each individual has a 50% chance of surviving (and a 50% chance of dying). There's no chance of escape, and no chance of rescue. However, if one of the prisoners volunteers to take the 50% chance of dying, then the other prisoners are all guaranteed to survive. The question is: do you think one of them would volunteer? Do you think the size of the group would influence the outcome?

Now, a different example.

A group of people are working in an office, and someone comes in and offers them all a chance to be given a new car (a corvette). Each individual has a 50% chance of getting a new car. However, if one person agrees to take the 50% chance at the car, then everyone else is guaranteed to get a new car. Do you think someone would volunteer? Do you think people would be more or less likely to volunteer in this example versus the other example?

I think this seems like the perfect opportunity for a poll:

[Poll #1194893]

Comments

[eskimoh.livejournal.com]

ok

i wrote a huge amount of stuff and i got sick of my brain vomit so i deleted it all... but here are a few thoughts on the prisoner scenario:

- depends on the conditions under which they are kept... do they socialise with other prisoners or are they confined to a solitary existence.

- if the prisoners socialise within the general community, then it is more likely that a person will volunteer for the 50% chance... they may enjoy a close relationship with another member of the group and wish to see them survive... or they may be feeling pressure from members of stronger groups (most if not all groups are decided by race in prisons, so you would be able to tell who is in which group just by looking in many cases), or fearing retaliation from other, stronger groups should they not volunteer, in which case they are protecting other members of their 'clan'...

-i have other thoughts but they're not very interesting... except that in the hostage situation i feel that the person most likely to volunteer would be a caregiver of another person in the group... so i think that you would see more volunteers wherein there are small groups in a relatively small, larger whole... having a larger group is good up to a point, but after a certain point a person will feel less responsibility and think more about being able to get through the ordeal just by being a face in the crowd... my previous thought about a member of a family volunteering to take the 50% shot is more likely to work in a group consisting of, say, a family and some individuals who are strangers... multiple families in the group are just going to... bah! too many variables... i'm done with this! should you want to discuss it in person over a few hundred drinks, you know where to find me! :P

ps - if we're going to be anal, then all people in the prisoner and hostage scenario have a 100% chance of dying... unless one or more of them are immortal... but i'm just being a prick now ;)

[kaaatie.livejournal.com]

Awww, but I love reading your brain vomit!

My brother also felt the need to point out that everyone has a 100% chance of dying!

But yes, we should discuss this in more detail over many drinks! We must catch up again before I go on my trip. Maybe next weekend? We have Queens Birthday public holiday on the Monday, so we could catch up on the Sunday night? Maybe pizza and guitar hero, or a movie or something?

[eskimoh.livejournal.com]

sounds like a plan to me ;) sunday night would be reeking of awesomeness... i have family lunch that day, so having brilliant plans for afterwards will always amp me up and allow me to stay positive through the family ordeal :P umm, jonathon is working on the monday though... but i'm almost positive that it's not an early start though so we can work something out... email me if i don't get to you first.