Because deep thinking is good for the mind!

[kaaatie]

I have a hypothetical question related to a conversation that I've been having...

Let's presume that there's a group of prisoners (let's say 10 of them). An executioner puts them all in a position where each individual has a 50% chance of surviving (and a 50% chance of dying). There's no chance of escape, and no chance of rescue. However, if one of the prisoners volunteers to take the 50% chance of dying, then the other prisoners are all guaranteed to survive. The question is: do you think one of them would volunteer? Do you think the size of the group would influence the outcome?

Now, a different example.

A group of people are working in an office, and someone comes in and offers them all a chance to be given a new car (a corvette). Each individual has a 50% chance of getting a new car. However, if one person agrees to take the 50% chance at the car, then everyone else is guaranteed to get a new car. Do you think someone would volunteer? Do you think people would be more or less likely to volunteer in this example versus the other example?

I think this seems like the perfect opportunity for a poll:

[Poll #1194893]

Comments

[clayeer.livejournal.com]

interesting! in the prisoner example i wouldn't volunteer because i always consider myself to be the supporting cast. you know, if life where a movie.

[cesperanza.livejournal.com]

I said maybe only because--there's this famous psychological example where people don't want other people to have more than them, even if, hypothetically, giving other people more means they'd get more than they'd normally get. (Sorry if that's not clear; brain not working so well and it's late.) So, like, logically speaking, if nobody else will volunteer (i.e. if there isn't a logical alternative candidate in the mix) you'd be best off volunteering cause 50% is as good as you're gonna get anyway, plus you do this good deed: logically, that should be a no brainer, except for some people, the very fact that others are getting more than you even if you yourself gain and/or don't lose is a problem.

That's about as clear as I'm getting on this tonight! *G*

[paradise-city.livejournal.com]

To follow up on what cesperanza said, there's also the idea of diffusion of responsibility, in that people are more likely to take action when fewer people are involved because there are fewer people who could potentially be held responsible. It's one of the reasons you're more likely to get help if you're stranded on the side of the road in a backwoods town than you are in the middle of the city. I don't think there's any hard evidence on how that interacts with altruism, but these were really interesting questions.

[morebliss.livejournal.com]

I don't want to die, and I don't want a car. If I worked in Torchwood I would offer to miss out on the car in exchange for sexual favours.

[larian.livejournal.com]

Which of the following factors is MOST likely to influence an individual's decision to volunteer?

I said I'd explain because I think it's more of an equal-ish mixture of wanting to be a hero, identification with the group, and genuinely altruistic feelings...The more the person can identify with the group, I'm thinking the more they might feel like dying for the group is 'worth it'

I remember this story from WWII where the Nazis had rounded up all these villages/townspeople and said that if this saboteur (sp?) didn't come forward, all of them would be shot. This man did step forward, he was hanged/shot for spying, etc and the rest of the people were allowed to go. Bottom line, he didn't do the bombing. He gave up his life for the rest of those people, and he really sort of did it for all of those reasons, (at least that was my interpretation). I sort of based my answers on that first situation based on this story...

I'd like to think that more people would volunteer in the car example because it'd be a *nice* thing to do. Besides, 50% chance of winning one is better than nothing, which my chances of getting a new car are right now. Besides, maybe I could guilt one of the winners into sharing it with me? Or maybe they have a car newer than mine and they would let me use it while they drove the hot new car. :D

[crysothemis.livejournal.com]

I'd volunteer in the car example because I don't want a corvette. ::g::

Seriously, though, this is basically pretty similar to the classic prisoner's dilemma (http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/prisoner-dilemma/). The choices that get made depend on who stands to benefit, and on the relationship of the people involved. Of course, people aren't always rational in real life. But in fiction, I would expect the decisions to reflect the characters.

In other words, John Sheppard would totally volunteer. Rodney McKay would figure out a different, briliant solution to the problem. ::g::

[garneteve.livejournal.com]

Think about this, and the way that I was bought up, I would consider volunteering in the prison scenario *only* because it would let the others survive. If say that the people were hardened criminals, I would not. If they were hostages, I may.

[eskimoh.livejournal.com]

ok

i wrote a huge amount of stuff and i got sick of my brain vomit so i deleted it all... but here are a few thoughts on the prisoner scenario:

- depends on the conditions under which they are kept... do they socialise with other prisoners or are they confined to a solitary existence.

- if the prisoners socialise within the general community, then it is more likely that a person will volunteer for the 50% chance... they may enjoy a close relationship with another member of the group and wish to see them survive... or they may be feeling pressure from members of stronger groups (most if not all groups are decided by race in prisons, so you would be able to tell who is in which group just by looking in many cases), or fearing retaliation from other, stronger groups should they not volunteer, in which case they are protecting other members of their 'clan'...

-i have other thoughts but they're not very interesting... except that in the hostage situation i feel that the person most likely to volunteer would be a caregiver of another person in the group... so i think that you would see more volunteers wherein there are small groups in a relatively small, larger whole... having a larger group is good up to a point, but after a certain point a person will feel less responsibility and think more about being able to get through the ordeal just by being a face in the crowd... my previous thought about a member of a family volunteering to take the 50% shot is more likely to work in a group consisting of, say, a family and some individuals who are strangers... multiple families in the group are just going to... bah! too many variables... i'm done with this! should you want to discuss it in person over a few hundred drinks, you know where to find me! :P

ps - if we're going to be anal, then all people in the prisoner and hostage scenario have a 100% chance of dying... unless one or more of them are immortal... but i'm just being a prick now ;)

[ghostgum]

I think, with the prisoners, it depends on how close they are (it is "every man for himself" or "mateship", that's the question). As for me, I have a horrid suspicion that I wouldn't want to volunteer but, if nobody else did, then I would feel obliged to step forwards. Because apparently I have a martyr complex. *rolls eyes*

I'd happily volunteer with the car because, well, cars don't bother me all that much either way! *g*

[sgkoneko.livejournal.com]

Okay first, it depends on what they are feeling, you mentioned guilt and other feelings, that may play into whether they say yes or no. Is there more of a chance with more people? No. There's a term in psychology for that. As more people show up, less people are going to help you/volunteer(example in psychology is stranded on a country road vs highway, no one stops on a highway)

Now the car one, I don't know if they would be more likely to volunteer, only a moron would and I wouldn't volunteer, because I'd be waiting for the moron. You have a 50% chance of getting the car, but also a 50% chance of NOT getting the car.

Someone would be more likely to volunteer however, because no one's life is at stake.

[miserabilia.livejournal.com]

I figure someone in that office has to have a nice car and would be the nice guy who would want everyone else to have a nice car, too. The prison scenario, though, I don't know how I feel about that. I just don't see a bunch of inmates as heroes, they'd all want to f-each other in my mindframe.

[paraka]

Ha, I did a lot of maybes in that post.
Prisoner example: (note, since you later mentioned hostages, I'm equating prisoner with criminal) I think someone would probably go forward, if only because, I bet some of the stronger prisoners would make the weakest one "volunteer".
I also think the kind of prisoners might make a difference in whether or not someone volunteered. If they were all in there for white collar-type crimes like tax evasion or drinking and driving, than I think there would be fewer people volunteering, since they'd probably be more self centred. If the prisoners were all part of a gang, I could see one of the lower members seeing this as a risky opportunity to rise through the ranks, or get a reputation, or else, a loyal member stepping in to save his brothers. If it were rapists, murders or serial killers, then there might be someone crazy enough to not care if they live or die, or there might be someone sane enough to feel remorse.

The more people you have, the more chances there are that there's someone in the group either wanting to die, or willing to die for someone else, so I definitely think that if it were a bigger group, someone would volunteer.

In a hostage situation, I could definitely see someone volunteer. I think then people are more willing to play the hero in that kind of situation. I know that if I were ever in that kind of situation, I'd seriously think about it (although, I'm kind of a coward, so I can't promise I'd go through with it).

In the car situation, I definitely think someone would step forward. I bet there would be an awkward silence before hand, where everyone waits to see if someone else will step forward first. I'd be one of those people waiting to see, but if it looked like no one else was jumping up, I certainly would.

[jakisbishlygay.livejournal.com]

Would one of the prisoners be another prisoners bitch? 'Cause that could be an influencing factor...

I'll come back and make a more intelligent reply when I'm not using a tiny phone keypad. :D