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kaaatieI have a hypothetical question related to a conversation that I've been having...
Let's presume that there's a group of prisoners (let's say 10 of them). An executioner puts them all in a position where each individual has a 50% chance of surviving (and a 50% chance of dying). There's no chance of escape, and no chance of rescue. However, if one of the prisoners volunteers to take the 50% chance of dying, then the other prisoners are all guaranteed to survive. The question is: do you think one of them would volunteer? Do you think the size of the group would influence the outcome?
Now, a different example.
A group of people are working in an office, and someone comes in and offers them all a chance to be given a new car (a corvette). Each individual has a 50% chance of getting a new car. However, if one person agrees to take the 50% chance at the car, then everyone else is guaranteed to get a new car. Do you think someone would volunteer? Do you think people would be more or less likely to volunteer in this example versus the other example?
I think this seems like the perfect opportunity for a poll:
[Poll #1194893]
Let's presume that there's a group of prisoners (let's say 10 of them). An executioner puts them all in a position where each individual has a 50% chance of surviving (and a 50% chance of dying). There's no chance of escape, and no chance of rescue. However, if one of the prisoners volunteers to take the 50% chance of dying, then the other prisoners are all guaranteed to survive. The question is: do you think one of them would volunteer? Do you think the size of the group would influence the outcome?
Now, a different example.
A group of people are working in an office, and someone comes in and offers them all a chance to be given a new car (a corvette). Each individual has a 50% chance of getting a new car. However, if one person agrees to take the 50% chance at the car, then everyone else is guaranteed to get a new car. Do you think someone would volunteer? Do you think people would be more or less likely to volunteer in this example versus the other example?
I think this seems like the perfect opportunity for a poll:
[Poll #1194893]
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Date: 2008-05-31 04:57 am (UTC)The group size thing is interesting. Your argument that an individual would be more likely to volunteer in a large group (as there are more lives to save) makes sense. But it's also possible that a larger group could reduce any one individual's feeling of personal responsibility, and therefore it might reduce the chance of someone volunteering.
I agree that someone should be more likely to volunteer in the car example. They're not changing their own chances of winning, and given that they didn't have a car before, they're not exactly 'losing' anything. I've been surprised by the number of people who've argued that people would be less likely to volunteer in that situation.
Anyway, it's all very interesting! :)